For the past several months (perhaps even longer than that), there’s been an idea in my mind that I’ve been thinking about. But up until now, I haven’t been able to get to the essence of it.
What’s interesting to me is that most of the time I’m able to get at the essence of something rather quickly. I just see the one thing(s) that matter most. (The downside of this, on occasion, is tunnel vision.)
At the same time, however, I just felt like this was something that was important. So I’d go back to it once in awhile, trying to zero in on what exactly I was thinking. What “it” actually is.
What I’ve been trying to articulate in my mind is this concept of hits and niches.
The hits and niches phenomenon permeates most any market or industry — music, film, business, technology, science, etc.
First, I think it’s important to discuss the missing part of hits and niches — the middle.
The middle, in my opinion, is an undesirable place to occupy. It’s important to point out that I’m not talking about the “Middle Stages”. [1]
I’m talking about ambivalence.
While the middle stages can be difficult, it’s still well defined and focused. For instance, the middle stages of procreation are the roughly 9 months of pregnancy. If you decide you’re going to have children, you know full well that there will be a 9 month period of, well, challenges and triumphs. You’re willing to go through this because the reward at the end (we hope!) is well worth the challenges. The gift of life! Which I think is one of the most amazing things in life.
Likewise, if you decide to grow out your hair to a certain length, let’s say 5 inches, you’re completely aware that you have to pass 2 and 3 inches to get there. While it might not be fun, as I wrote about in the linked post above, I think, for the most part, you get to choose your attitude. You get to decide whether or not to view and experience the 2 and 3 inch phases with pessimism or optimism. So it actually can be fun, but that’s up to you.
Same goes with that 9 months of pregnancy. (But I encourage the men out there to still be supportive of your significant other’s emotional swings. Sometimes just listening will make all the difference. Empathize, even if you think she’s overreacting, being illogical, or should be more optimistic about things.)
What makes the middle of something undesirable is its lack of direction. The fact that it’s undefined. The fact that you don’t know if you should go left, right, up, down, sideways, forward, or backwards. That’s what being lost feels like and it’s a lonely, and dark, feeling.
But I think the middle is a real phenomenon. I just think that when you’re faced with being in the middle of something, you should move as fast as possible to get out of it. Pick a direction and go with it. It may not be the right answer or solution, but you’ll get feedback. You’ll be able to eliminate going down as an option.
For awhile, much of industry was focused on hits. And then Chris Anderson of Wired Magazine wrote an article in October 2004, called “The Long Tail”. [2]
From Wikipedia [2]:
The Long Tail refers to the statistical property that a larger share of population rests within the tail of a probability distribution than observed under a ‘normal’ or Gaussian distribution. The term has gained popularity in recent times as a retailing concept describing the niche strategy of selling a large number of unique items in relatively small quantities – usually in addition to selling fewer popular items in large quantities.
Chris then followed up that article with a book, The Long Tail: Why The Future Of Business Is Selling Less of More. [3]
Wired.com released an excerpt from the book before its release in July 2006. [4]
I haven’t read the book, but I have read both articles. I recommend reading them if you haven’t already.
But my interest in this topic was recently renewed by an article from The Economist — “Media: A World Of Hits”. [5]
Its headline states: “Ever-increasing choice was supposed to mean the end of the blockbuster. It has had the opposite effect”, and it goes on to explain just that — that the hits business is still big.
This morning, I re-read all of those articles and thought about some other things as well. And that’s when things clicked.
Ideally, I think the best world is one where there’s sustainable support and infrastructure for both hits and niches. Hits probably won’t ever have a problem with this because people will always allocate resources to them. The YouTube’s and Facebook’s of the world will probably work out just fine. They’re existence isn’t in jeopardy. They’ll always provide a favorable return — one that often times supports the non-hits.
But I think that’s partly what’s wrong with the structure of this type of market. While the hits are important, they’re not everything. It shouldn’t be about finding the hit to support the niche. It should be about finding ways for niches to be self-sustainable.
I think more resources and attention should be focused around creating sustainable niches. Niches, I think, can self-sustain if provided the right resources. They can provide a nice (and sustainable) return and income stream if they’re cultivated carefully.
And I think some will inevitably turn into hits, which is okay. (I think it’s actually wrong not to allow for niches to naturally turn into hits if that’s what the market desires– just keep things small (e.g. head count) and focused.)
But I think much of our attention needs to be focused around promising niches. Ones with a real, passionate, and loyal community.
Not every niche is probably worth pursuing. In fact, many probably aren’t. But there are probably more that show promise than are being supported.
What’s ironic about all of this is that even the hits are still niches. Because there are over 6.5 billion people in the world, most hits don’t appeal to or reach everyone. [6] As of now, the only real hit is oxygen. I hope it includes food, shelter, medicine, and peace at some point.
But the only way I see that happening is a passionate pursuit of niches.
I’m not going to lie, I would love to create a hit, something that is widely used and many find useful. But if I do, I’ll know where it came from. I’ll know what it really is.
I’ll know that at its core, it’s still just a niche.
That’s the way the universe works. Afterall, us earthlings are just part of a niche.
The hits will continue to rise to the top (as they should). But valuable niches might not even survive. And in the long-run, I think that’s bad for society.
But perhaps the most important thing about all of this is that it shouldn’t be hits versus niches. It shouldn’t be me against them.
It’s an us thing.
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[1] Joon Report: “Middle Stages”
[2] Chris Anderson’s (and Wired’s) article: “The Long Tail” and the “Long Tail” Wikipedia entry
[3] Chris Anderson’s: The Long Tail (book via Amazon.com)
[4] Chris Anderson’s: The Long Tail (book excerpt via Wired.com)
[5] The Economist: “Media — A World Of Hits”
[6] World Population Statistic (via Google)